The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. This old psychological mantra used to be true when the world was more stable and change was less pervasive than it is today. In an era of ongoing change and crisis, however, current events have few precedents in the past. Predicting the future and assessing risks is tougher than it has ever been. This is the theme of an entire (October 2009) issue of Harvard Business Review. There are many explanations for the current economic crisis but in part, suggests HBR. the problem stems from managers who took on high degrees of risk to generate high returns. But what worked in the past stopped working in the present and the big risks brought big losses.
How does this apply to coaching, counseling or ministry? Consider the following, some building on HBR.
- Low-probability, high-impact events are almost impossible to forecast. "Instead of trying to anticipate low-probability, high-impact events, we should reduce our vulnerability to them....In chess, grand masters focus on avoiding errors; rookies try to win."
- The biggest risk may lie within us. We overestimate our abilities and underestimate what can go wrong. As a result we take actions that are too risky and dangerous.
- Optimism and positive thinking can be good, but the "relentless promotion of positive thinking" may have contributed to the current recession. "Providing a best-case scenario usually increases the appetite for risk." Perhaps we should adapt more realistic attitudes to life, careers and business.
- Recognize individual differences in risk-taking. Some people take big risks and accept the consequences good or bad. But remember that individual actions impact others. Change one part of a system (business, family, church, or career, for example) and there can be consequences in every other part of the system.
- One challenge for coaches and counselors is to help others face and deal with risk. That can be a risky business
How does this apply to the Christian belief that God is in control? How does it relate to contemporary convictions that positive thinking and optimism are admirable?
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